How can the 3G iPhone still surprise us

I doubt there is anyone in the world right how, who will be surprized if Apple reveals a 3G iPhone during WWDC starting on the 9th of June 2008. Besides the introduction of a 3G, the new iPhone is often rumored to have a GPS chip, along with front iSight camera for video chat.

 So, even if know for sure that Apple reveals all that, there are still a number of developments around the iPhone, that I think have a chance of happening and will surprise most people.

1. Sales.

Apple is no doubt going to release the sales figures for the iPhone to date. Looking back in time to Macworld 2007, Apple forecast 10 Million iPhone sales by the end of 2008. Since then most insightful analysis have indicated that overall, the iPhone is exceeding expectations. 

 

The latest figure we have is 5.7 million sold before 6th of March. One of the Big news and surprises we may hear is that Apple has sold the 10 million iPhones already.

How is that possible? Well first, there was a big boom in unlocking in February, and 16GB model. March 6 announcement likely injected further enthusiasm in many developers and enterprises to buy the iPhones. 

Third, I don't think anyone have even paid attention on how the low US dollar has afflicted iPhone salles. When iPhone started selling the US dollar had 25% more value, than now, making it very affordable for  foreigners to buy iPhones from the  US.

Forth, by the time of WWDC 2009, given the recent unavailability of the iPhone already in US, and UK, there will likely be no iPhones officially left in the stores. Perhaps only France and Germany will still have some.

We all assumes that by 10 million iPhone sales, Apple meant all iPhone models released by 2008 including the 3G one. However, Apple might have cleverly disguised their plans to sell 10 million only from the first version.

2. Processor

Almost one year ago Intel showcased a ultra thin notebook design in collaboration with Ziba, named Metro

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/notebook-supermodel/intel-unveils-worlds-thinnest-laptop-almost-skinny-as-a-razr-263359.php

This laptop however, never went beyond the concept stage. The reason: Apple was developing its own version of the concept in close collaboration with Intel and 6 months later, Apple revealed the Macbook Air - the world's thinnest notebook.

One remarkable thing about the Macbook Air, often overlooked is that is has a custom made chip by Intel, which is 60 smaller in packaging, compared to the standard model.

In September, Intel also demoed the new 45nm based processor chip

later called Intel Atom.

 A long with that , Intel demonstrated an elongated iPhone like device using it. It is stated in the following press releases that the Atom Processor is made for devices with screen size of about 4.5-5in . 

http://www.engadget.com/2007/09/20/intel-demos-iphone-like-mid-of-the-future/

 

Some other recent developments have given rise to the recent rumor that Apple will showcase a new mini tablet like device (aka iPad) using the new processor. I think people are missing the point set by the previous example. So while Apple may introduce a Atom based bevice  during WWDC, it not going to be the iPad. Its going to be the 3G iPhone. Why? Because Intel like to make custom chips for Apple. Chips that are much smaller than the standart ones and eable Apple to produce amazingly compact, yet powerful devices.

3. Camera

The iPhone camera is nothing special in specs, but the iPhone has made it a breeze for people to make very decent shots and as a result, the iPhone is now the number one device uploading pictures to Flickr, putting even the mighty Nokia N95 behind.

The company manufacturing the iPhone sensor is likely Micron

http://news.softpedia.com/news/iPhone-Camera-Sensors-Will-Be-Produced-by-Micron-48644.shtml

People have even managed to point the exact model of their CMOS chip

http://www.robertphotoblog.com/2007/apple-iphone-camera/

If you look at their catalog, you will see that they have a new 3MP chip in testing now.

http://www.aptina.com/products/image_sensors/mt9t013d00stc/#overview

 

Since both chips have similar size, Apple can easily introduce a better camera in to new iPhone.

 

What is more, a few Months ago, Apple has a job opening for a engineer responsible for the iPhone camera app integration. This just plainly sais that Apple is like to release a new camera app in the 2.0 software update. Video recording is now even more likely as a new processor will help greatly in real time high quality video compression on right on your iPhone.

4. Syncing

It is almost 100% sure that Apple will also roll out some for more wireless .Mac sync for the iPhone. This could be coupled with a new 802.11n Wi-Fi chip to be able to keep pace with the increased storage of the expected 32GB model.

5. Presentation.

 

We were all in Wow the way Steve Jobs  presented the iPhone originally as 3 separate devices and then saying that it was just one products.

Revolutionary Phone

 Breakthrough Internet Communications Device

 Widescreen iPod with touch controls

 

This year Apple may add a few more sides to the iPhone:

Advanced gaming platform

 Ground-breaking pocket camera

 Revolutionary pocket Mac

 

Can’t Wait!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

The iPhone Pandemic

Last winter quarter (calendar Q4 2007) the iPhone was on sales in only 4 countries in the world.

It was not 3G, it did not have GPS or even maps with location, it wasn't enterprise friendly and did not have any 3rd party apps support. Most of all, it was not easily unlocked and it was sold trough only one carrier per country.

Yet somehow Apple managed to sell some 2.3 million iPhones, and this device alone gave Apple 6.5 percent share of the world smartphone market.

This holiday season or the calendar Q4 2008, Apple will have a much bigger deal for the world. The iPhone will have 3G, GPS, and 3rd party apps. It will be enterprise and game console ready. It will sell troughout the world (the map depics all known and rumoured launch countries), and it will sell in many cases with more that one operator per country. If that is not enough, the 3G iPhone will likely cost less with subscription and will largely be available unlocked too.

In short, Apple will have a widely available, cheeper and much more capable iPhone, that is much more supported by the world industry as a whole. 

This turn of events will likely make the iPhone the best selling smartphone in the world by a wide margin just in time for Macworld 2009.

P.S. The list with possible iPhone countries is current as of 27.05.2008

Let's look at the numbers for a second. The following table lists smartphone sales for Q4 of 2005, 2006 and 2007. I have added projection for 2008 based on a less than full exponential increase due to the iPhone. The iPhone sales on the other hand are based on the average iPod sales increase for the same quarters in its first 3 years.

Here is how will that translate into the smartphone market share for the 4 companies. 

It's clear that Apple will be still #2 in the world, but with just one device.  If we add the sales to the iPod touch, Apple will be virtually the worlds pocket-held computer leader in terms of a common platform in the market.