Monday, September 13, 2010
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Apple is projected to sell 130 million iOS-based mobile devices per year by 2014, but both Google Android and Nokia Symbian are expected to each double that amount, according to Gartner.
Can anyone actually guess how many iOS devices will be on the Market in 2014?
BTW, the iPhone sells at 4 million a month now, the iPad is a 2million and the iPod touch at 3 million. That 103 million units per year right about now. And apple is working on constantly increasing that. In fact Apple has been more than doubling its production capacity every year so far.
So - shipping rates per year so far:
2007 - >9 million (iPhone + iPod touch)
2008 - >20 million (iPhone 3G + iPod touch)
2009 - >45 million (iPhone 3GS + iPhone 3G + iPod touch)
2010 - >100 million (iPad + iPhone 4 + iPhone 3GS + iPod touch)
2011 - ?
2012 - ?
2013 - ?
2014 - =130 million . I mean, WTF Gartner !?!
Friday, September 3, 2010
Has any one noticed how all the iPod models got lower case identifier names now. The iPod Touch is now iPod touch, the Nano is nano and so on. Is Alppe trying the emphasize the iPod part?
Also, up until now Apple was selling a 2nd Gen iPod touch model at $199. Now for $30 more you get a 4th gen device.
Back to the mystery after this though detour...
So Apple makes the iPhone in 2007 and changes the whole phone industry. Everybody wants to have an iPhone clone in its line up. 3 years later there are countless iPhone wannabes
Apple also makes another device that they call the iPod touch. It is the phones without the phone and even less (no GPS, camera and all) and represent 1/3 of all iOS devices sold. The incredible thing is that there are 0 - zero iPod clones that challenge in any way the touch. The Zune does not count as it was clone of the iPod touch from 2007 but in 2009 (2 generations behind)
For some reason the only thing companies are successfully cloning from Apple are 3G enabled devices. There is no clone yet, coming for the iPad Wifi. Alldevices have 3G antennas build. No only that, they all preserve the phone functionally. At best the only thing they are cloning is the iPad 3G. There is no contract free iPad clone that is available widely.
If I had to make a guess as to why this is the case, it would be that a 3G device is a lot more profitable and/or a lot more sellable.
If I had a second guess as to why is that, it would be that only carriers have retail locations and store partnership. Only a Carrier can potentially market and sell a device since no one else but Apple has 300 stores and retail network that has nothing to do with phones. Only Apple has the complete product distribution solution.
If I had to make a third guess, it would be that Carriers are only interested int 3G (phone) enabled deices as only trough them can they make a profit. Consequently, no Android device would be sold if it does not have a 3G phone feature.
If HTC were to market and sell the devices it sells all by itself, it would have had to incorporate the cost of the retails store and advertising into the price of its products. People constantly complain about the Apple tax on products, yet no one even tries to measure the cost of ex. renting a super huge palace like the 300th Apple store in the middle of London and making it profitable. Most of the 40,000 Apple employees work in retail. They are support personal and they earn good salaries.
If my analysis is correct then we would never see a 3G less iPod Touch clone.
Same for the iPad.
The only company big enough to replicate the Apple complete product matrix and distribution solution would likely chose its own operating system too.
Seams like the Android platform has shot its one leg off right from the start. Even if there are eventually more Android Phones and Tablets than iPhone and iPad 3Gs, there will be just as many if not more iPod touches and iPads.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Now, I am convinced they will not do it for the 4th gen either.
Two words: Performance and Battery Life.
The iPod touch, while featuring similar music and video playback times as the iPhone of the same generation, actually has a battery with less than half the capacity. It's battery is only 600 mAh vs the iPhone's 1400 mAh.
Stand alone card GPS devices are big and don't last long without external power.
There is one device out there that has the biggest battery charge per cubic centimeter of electronics ever. Ok, that's just speculation but the fact is that the iPad has one bad ass huge battery and boy does it last.
Yet the WiFi version has no GPS, why?Why is Apple willing to include GPS as part of the WiFi+3G model but not the WiFi only one? It's not the battery this time.
Apple uses what is called A-GPS or assisted GPS. Instead of relying entirely on GPS lock on to triangulate the device position, the iPhone 3G used the WiFi/Cell tower triangulation first.
The result: The iPhone could achieve location lock within few seconds, while a dedicated GPS could take up to a minute.
Apple being religiously zealous about efficiency of design and operation will likely never put a GPS module into a device without a data connection. A-GPS performance is hat good.
With the iPod Touch being WiFi only device, GPS will not be among it's new features.
It will have retina display, gyroscope, front/rear cameras for Facetime, but it will not have GPS unless...
...unless Apple decides to really go for an iPod Touch attack and introduce a Wifi+3G model as well. To revitalize the iPod growth and fend off emerging similar Android devices.
Unfortunately I don't see that happening either for one simple reason. No internal space. The iPod is packed to the gills. Its 7 mm thin. You can't just find a space for a 3G athena, and all the new circuitry.
When iFixit made the iPad teardown, it was truly remarkable how much internal free space there was inside the iPad. That's even if you did not consider the space they left for 3G components.
So the iPod Touch does not have the internal volume and battery capacity to operate a 3G circuit to justify the addition of a GPS unless ....
....unless the iPod also gets a redesign.
Well with the all the recent leaks about iPod Touch with camera casing, it seas Apple will stick with the ergonomic design one more generation.
The reason to keep the iPod Touch design unchanged for a third generation is simple. 3rd Party Accessory and case makers. They would just love to be able to sell their products with with no or minor modifications to an ever expanding pool of customers.
New design requiring more time to mature will also appear spurred by the fact that the iPod Touch is not just a sotware platform with its iOS but very much a hardware one, with its clean design and compatible outline spanning across generations. Did you see the iPod touch case
with GSM athena and slot for SIM card? If it works as advertised, the combination of that case + the new iPod Touch will rule the third world countries. It's the one product Apple refuses to make.
In this world of consumer technology companies like Nokia though us for years that a new phone with a slightly different design every few months is something normal. Now Apple is about to keep the design of its most profitable iPod ever for a 3rd year in a row, likely blasting
in to new highs of sales records and revenue.
Oh the irony!
Sent from my iPhone
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Monday, May 31, 2010
- Apple is rumored to be increasing production to 2.5 million units a month starting in June.
- Several more rollouts into other countries are scheduled till the end of this year.
- The earliest quasi competitors would not show up for another 3-4 months, and Android based, more closer competitors till at least the end of this year if not early 2011.
- Sales so far have happened in the historically 2nd lowest sales quarter - Q2. Thing will significantly pick up after september.
- As sales of the iPads began to reach ears of the big company CIO, web content providers will move even faster towards HTML 5, erasing the FLASH argument against the iPad
- The Fall iPhone OS 4.0 software update will be a major sales boots as it significantly increases the capabilities of the device.
- Developers are still surprising with awesome new iPad apps that turn heads. Just today Pulse showed up. The iPad catalogue stands at 5000 today will likely pick up significantly after WWDC..
- A whole new class of OS 4.0 Application will start to roll out later this year.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
- Its interesting but it turns out that development of both Android and iPhone OS started around the same time around 2005. I do believe that the numbering scheme that Google has choses for the Android platform does reflect the progress made in the operating system. Consequently a software platform at version 2.2 cannot be more feature rich as very comparable platform at version 3.1 For indirect proof look at the Chrome desktop browser being at version 5 now, ahead of Safari which is still at version 4. Clearly Google considers the desktop browser the most important software it works on.
- the features which people find the Android platform to be superior, namely Gmail, Voice search and Turn by Turn navigation are part of the Google core competency and a differentiator, just like Apple has build its iTunes/iPod business
- the more important general features which Froyo 2.2 added, such as Exchange and application data backup, have been with the iPhone OS since its own version 2.2 back in September 2008.
- The really interesting features demonstrated at the Froyo keynote, such a push application purchasing and other types of over the air delivered features and content are not part of Froyo, but sneak peaks into some future release. Stiff, Google is a cloud company an its is to be expected that it will get ahead in the cloud services game, where Apple clearly does not make a lot of effort at.
- One of the reasons Google went behind Adobe as a application development platformis that is own Android SDK obviously sucked and Apple left it in the dust. Google hoped to use the iPhone platform as an incentive for developers to create app that could easily then be easily converted to Android using Adobe tools and quickly close the gap in number of apps the iPhone enjoys. Clearly a tactic not worthy of a allegedly superior platform.
- The iPhone 3GS was introduced in min 2009 with worldwide availability. While some resent new offerings carry bigger displays and newer generation components, none of them has reached significant availability. An not all of them are superior the iPhone in terms of end user performance. I am not talking about feature specs, but actually battery/software performance, display quality in all lighting conditions, hardware reliability and so on. Only one device with the Android operating system can be compared with the iPhone in terms of overal market impart and that is the Motorola Droid. I will go on the record by said that its success in the US in particular has to do with nothing else that the name DROID. George Luscas has spend 3 decades encoding that word into the American popular culture trough the Start Wars francise, and Motorola just rode the wave.
- All these new generation of Android phones: The Nexus One, the Droid Incredible, the EVO 4G and so on are 2010 devices. Just because, Apple is the only company that does not announce its new hardware just prior to actually being able to ship it, does not mean that comparisons with the iPhone 3GS, 2 weeks prior the the iPhone A4 are still valid. In recent performance tests with the Nexus One running the latest Android 2.2, the iPhone seams to have lost the edge in speed it held for 10+ months now. But not by a significant margina and that is to be expected. What people miss to notice however is that the speed diference between the iPhone 3GS and the Nexus One running Froyo is much less than the hardware spec advantage the Google phone seams to have. The 2009 iPhone had a 50% clock speed increase / 2X RAM increase over the 2008 iPhone resulting in system wide 2X performance increase. 2010 The Nexus One has 70% clock speed increase / 2X RAM increase over the 2009 iPhone, yet it seams to enjoy a small system wide performance advantage over the 3GS only when it does now make significant used of its other alleged advantage: background processing. What would the results be when Apple matches or exceed any current or projected Android hardware with the iPhone 4A? Should'n we wait a few more weeks and make a 2010 Android device vs 2010 Apple device comparison instead, before making claims Andorid is faster.'
- It's funny how people ignore things like cheap Android phones with 1.6 or even 1.5 still being sold in buy one, get one free fashion. Everybody can sell hardware at a loss, by tying people to two year old contracts. Everybody that does not value its customers beyond the point of sale. Not Apple
- Why not compare iPhone Sales in AT&T with comparably priced Android phones sold just by Verizon. That's a fair comparison in my opinion as it matches the the overal price and service and leaves the actual experience and value of the device to shine out. People like bashing how Nexus One seams to edge the iPhone 3GS in some ways but never mentions its actual sales. The wide public seams to associate the Android with these top/flagship devices even though they are not the bread and butter of the sales. The exception being the Motorola droid, which has sales figures compared to the original iPhone prior to its price drop.
- Android sales will quickly level out when the introduction across all 4 major US carriers is complete in less time than the first adopters had a chance to go trough their 2 year contacts. At that time people would know whether they want to have the same experience again or switch to the iPhone. The thing about the iPhone is that very few people ever switch away from it, some of those come back eventually and some do it for no other reason than the service provider AT&T
- Why are not people counting the iPod Touch as sales? Oh, because it's not a phone. In many ways the iPod Touch is more of a smartphone than many so called smartphones sold today. Apple will eventually add a phone feature to most of its iPods. You should not discredit sales of a particular product based on definitions that constantly change but rather on the impact that it has. One can argue can a person with a dumb phone and an iPod Touch has in effect a smartphone. One can also argue that people owning iPod Touches are not likely to also carry a touch screen smartphone. So again, why not count those as sales too if they can be a substitute for a canonical smartphone. Everything will make since if only people compare sales by operating system, not by specific hardware features. After all a person with an iPod Touch running OS 4 and a MiFi in his pocket can have a better Skype phone functionality than most smartphones today.
Monday, May 3, 2010
- production meets demand. Right now, its way bellow:
- the iPad 3G is introduced
- international availability is a fact next month
- Apple negotiates breakthrough 3G deals with international carriers
- enough iPad specific apps populate the App Store
- iPhone OS 4 is available for iPad in the Fall
Sunday, May 2, 2010
I don't know how much more obvious it can get about the market for tablets and specifically the iPad which is the only one of its kind now.
This device has so many potential real life uses.
I hope Jobs and Apple are prepared to meet the adoption wave that is unfolding. First reports are that they are: quote Tim Cook "Shocked" already.
- releasing a magical device at a breakthrough price, aka the iPad
- working on the 4th biggest and best update to its iPhone OS
- working on a awesome new iPhone hardware as spoiled by Gizmodo
- Apple uses superior manufacturing process, let expensive raw materials and more components produced by the company to keep the hardware price the same while dramatically increasing capability.
- By adopting the iPad 3G on device contract management, Apple can reduce the price of servicing the device.
- First software update is free while consequent ones are paid by the customer. Previously Apple needed to factor in the price of 2 year free updates in to the price of the phone.
- The iPhone brand is well established and Apple has working relationships with many carriers in the word. Introducing a new device will not be as costly.
- The iPhone is starting to have some serious competition and Apple needs to lower its profits to the level of the other products that it offers. Just like it did with the iPad.
Saturday, May 1, 2010
This was going to be a test of things to come. Can I open my iPhone to the extend needed to replace the display? Can I put it back together and still work?
I got all the tools, time and guides I needed. By the way, I used this iFixit guide
That part was easy.
Nothing special here either.
Remobing the battery was a very long process. It was glued so strongly that I got it to bend quite a bit more before I broke free. The metal spudger was essential here.
I was hoping that the display conector was not making a good contact or something but the problem appeared to be buried deep inside the display assembly. I had to buy a new one. They are $100 bucks on ebay.
I assembled the phone and the problem was still there. Here is what does not work:
- second button from the bottom on a popup menus.
- a couple of letters in the landscape keyboard.
Had the dead stribe been a little bit more up or down, it was likely that the portrait keyboard would have been completely unusable. Thank jobs it still is.
Monday, April 19, 2010
- you lose time for loading the stuff on your card
- you can add a song with bad quality, broken file or missing tag
- you are dealing with folder and hierarchal structure, which no user should be doing
- the date will likely contain no information about which song was played
- unless you use a special software to structure the content on the card, you may have to find the music the old fashion Winamp way.
- how do you know which content is purchased from you, and which is not?
Sunday, April 18, 2010
- Maximum torsion strength and minimum weight
- very cheap to produce
- machine process commonality with all other Apple products
- fully recyclable
- access from top and bottom with equal ease
- Perfect signal reception
- Almost no cost to manufacture
- fully recyclable
- scratch resistant
- easy to replace if broken
- no holes needed for camera or flash
- iMac/iPad approach to screen gorgeousness
- glass panels help with bending moments
- Volume controls are now two separate buttons which should dramatically make it easier to press, improve reliability and damage tolerance
- SIM card port is moved to the right side. Kind of logical since cramping too many openings on top would have made this section of the phone substantially weaker.
- It's interesting if the small hole next to the headphone jack is noise canceling microphone. It makes more sense to have one now, since in video chat you will not hold the phone close to you for clear audio reception.
- I cannot say much about the internal except that they look even more beautifully and efficiently laid out. The speaker/microphone assembly actually looks quite substantial. Possibly finally solving the 3 year complain of good output volume.
- The two seams on the aluminum bezel do indicate a two piece frame assembly. I actually think, they will be gone on the production model. There is no reason Apple cannot manufacture the frame as a single part, aka unibody.
- The new design absent of complex curved shapes will be much more easy for case/dock developers.
- The flat back, thin design and OS 4 features will allow for one longtime dream of many users: An iPhone case with slide out bluetooth keyboard.
- I really like how Apple how found a way to simplify the whole design down to it two favorite materials: Glass and Aluminum. First the Macbook Pros, then the iMac, now the iPad. The iPhone could be next, followed by the iPods.
- I cannot stress this enough. Apple has found a way to produce just 2 glass and 2 aluminum parts that hold all other non Apple produced components. If they also put in their own SoC silicon now, this phone will have an incredibly low production price, giving Apple's phone not just quality but cost advantage. How do you beat that HTC?
Sunday, April 4, 2010
These are the reasons why I watch Starcraft these days. There is just one player out there, who just dominates like no other in the history of the game.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Monday, February 8, 2010
- You cannot use laptops and netbooks without supporting their weight by something other than your hands.
- The tablet win the 1 Hand Stationary Use round, because its main workflow paradigm does not depend on using two hands, while productivity on laptops and netbooks drops significantly to the point of frustration if you are limited to just using one hand
- While a Tablet may not run full OS apps, it will be able to do stuff that come out of its inherent design. For example, a whole new types of programs (books, comics, magazines) become practical, when you can rotate the device in portrait mode. Can you work in portrait mode on a netbook? Or can you imagine accelerometer controls on a netbook?
Monday, February 1, 2010
- Apple CEO Steve Jobs was quoted to say the the next iPhone is a A+ device. Did he choose that definition by accident or was he trying to hide 2 facts into 1.
- Apple released the iPad, which features a custom silicon by Apple called the A4. This processor has technology inside suitable for smartphones.
Saturday, January 30, 2010
- it's consumes processing power in a big way draining your batteries quickly
- is is not a open standard that everyone can contribute to like HTML 5 or Webkit
- it is very unreliable
- it is very unsecured
- Flash sites are not indexable by google
- there are better and open alternatives
- There is a special dock with full size keyboard with some custom iPhone OS keys.
- You can use apple bluеtooth keyboard as well
- Last I checked there are a lot of non English typing people out there. The iPhone keyboard can transform to efficiently enter characters in tents of languages. Can a netbook do that? No
- Can you type of a netbook without sitting with one or 2 hands? No
- Are the netbook keyboard actually full sized keyboard good for serious typing? No